Retiring RCP 8.5 is being used by denialist and right‑wing media to claim we’ve dodged the worst climate futures and that past climate warnings were overblown. In this episode, Herb Simmens talks with Dr. Peter Carter and Paul Beckwith about why that narrative is dangerously misleading and what today’s record temperatures and ongoing fossil fuel dependence really tell us.
This video was recorded on June 3rd, 2026, and published on June 7th, 2026, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
Peter explains what Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are, why RCP 8.5 was originally a worst‑case scenario rather than “business as usual,” and how new “emissions‑based” scenarios embed optimistic assumptions about coal decline, renewables and future emissions. Paul connects this to real‑world observations—accelerating warming, ocean heat and feedbacks—arguing that in terms of realised warming and impacts we are still tracking near the high‑end of model projections.
Together they show how downgrading high‑end scenarios, miscommunicating “business as usual,” and politically undermining climate data collection create a false sense of security just as impacts intensify. From lethal heat in India to escalating wildfire losses, they argue that the real issue is not whether a label like RCP 8.5 is retired, but whether we confront the accelerating crisis in the next 10–20 years with honesty and urgency.
Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario
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Scientists warn Trump plan to axe US ocean monitoring system will leave world ‘flying blind’
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2025 Sets Record for Global Wildfire Losses Despite Smaller Burn Area
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute.
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa’s Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University.
Herb Simmens - Author, Co-founder of the Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC), Climate Emergency Board Member and former college instructor.
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Heidi Brault - Climate Reality Leader, BA(Psychology), Library & Information Technician Diploma - Video production and website assistant - Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP Team Lead for FacingFuture.Earth and the Climate Emergency Forum.
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