By Charles Gregoire
Electrification is the process of replacing direct fossil-fuel use—such as gasoline in cars, natural gas in furnaces, oil in boilers, or coal in industrial equipment—with electricity. It matters because electricity can be generated from low-carbon sources, while combustion at the point of use almost always produces greenhouse-gas pollution.
A useful measure is electricity’s share of total final energy consumption: the energy actually used by households, businesses, transport, and industry. This is different from electricity generation or primary energy supply. It asks a simple demand-side question: of all the energy people and firms use, what portion arrives as electricity?
Globally, electricity supplied about 21% of final energy use in 2025, and the International Energy Agency expects that share to reach 24% by 2030. Electricity demand is now expected to grow at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand, driven by electric vehicles, heat pumps, cooling, data centres, and new industrial loads. iea
An increase in electricity use is not automatically a climate success. An electric vehicle charged from a coal-heavy grid is still usually more efficient than a gasoline vehicle, but its climate advantage is far greater when the grid is supplied by hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, or other low-carbon sources.
Still, electrification is essential because it makes end uses more efficient and connects them to a grid that can be cleaned up over time.
Consider a few familiar examples:
The denominator is important. A country can use a great deal of electricity yet still have a modest electrification rate if most of its transport, industrial heat, and building heat remain fossil-fuelled. Conversely, a country’s electricity share can rise even when total energy demand is flat or falling, if electricity replaces direct fuel use.
Over roughly the last 20 years, the broad global pattern has been steady but uneven growth in the role of electricity. In many high-income countries, electricity demand was flat for long periods because of more efficient appliances, slower industrial growth, and the outsourcing of energy-intensive manufacturing. That does not mean electrification stopped; rather, progress in transport and heating was initially too slow to outweigh efficiency gains and structural change.
The IEA describes 2010s-to-early-2020s electricity demand in advanced economies as a roughly 15-year period of stagnation. Demand has begun to rise again, however, as electric vehicles, heat pumps, air conditioning, data centres, advanced manufacturing, and electricity-hungry digital infrastructure add new loads. iea
The current shift is different from older electricity growth. Earlier growth largely reflected the spread of lights, appliances, air conditioning, motors, and industrial machinery. Today’s growth increasingly comes from substituting electricity for fossil fuels in activities that historically burned fuels directly:
This produces a policy challenge: the world needs more electricity, but it needs that electricity to become cleaner at the same time. Expanding power demand without expanding clean generation, grids, storage, demand flexibility, and efficiency can prolong fossil-fuel generation. Expanding all of these together turns electrification into a major climate solution.
The table below uses the IEA’s demand-side definition: electricity consumption as a share of total final energy consumption. Precise national values vary by data year, accounting method, and whether a source reports a country, the European Union, or Europe more broadly. The comparison is therefore best read as an overview of the direction and relative scale of change.
| Country or region | Approximate position today | Change over about 20 years | Main story |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Around or somewhat above the low-20% range | Slow change overall | A hydro- and nuclear-rich electricity system gives Canada a relatively low-carbon grid, but transport, industrial energy, and fossil space heating still make up a large share of final energy use |
| United States | Just above 20% | Largely stagnant as a share | Electricity use has recently resumed growth after a long flat period; data centres, cooling, heat pumps, manufacturing, and EVs are important new drivers |
| United Kingdom | Around the low-20% range | Modest rise, with rapid power-sector cleanup | Coal has been pushed out of the power mix, but gas heating and transport fuels keep direct fossil use high |
| European Union | Just above 20% | Slow share growth | Electrification has advanced, but industrial disruption, gas heating, and uneven EV and heat-pump deployment have limited faster gains |
| China | More than 27% in 2025 | Roughly doubled since 2005 | The fastest electrification advance among major economies, driven by industry, urbanization, appliances, EVs, cooling, and massive clean-energy investment |
| India | Lower than China and advanced electrified economies, but rising | Strong growth in electricity access and use | Cooling, industry, household appliances, agriculture, transport infrastructure, and economic development are increasing demand rapidly |
| Australia | Just above 20% | Broadly stagnant as a share | High electricity use per person coexists with substantial direct fossil use in transport, gas heating, and industry; rooftop solar and EVs are beginning to change the picture |
The clearest contrast is China versus the major advanced economies. The IEA reports that China’s electricity share of total final consumption has more than doubled since 2005 and exceeded 27% in 2025. By comparison, electrification shares in the United States, European Union, Australia, and New Zealand have stagnated just above 20%. iea
That does not mean China has completed an energy transition. China remains heavily reliant on coal in its energy system, and its enormous industrial base requires huge quantities of energy. But it does mean that a growing portion of Chinese final energy demand is delivered as electricity, making decarbonization of power generation especially consequential.
Canada begins from an important advantage: much of its electricity comes from low-emitting hydroelectricity, nuclear power, wind, and other non-fossil sources. That makes new electricity demand potentially cleaner than in jurisdictions dependent on coal or gas generation.
Yet Canada is not fully electrified. Long winters, widespread natural-gas heating, oil and gas extraction, heavy industry, long-distance freight, aviation, and a vehicle fleet still dominated by gasoline and diesel all hold down electricity’s share of final energy use. In provinces with clean grids, replacing oil or gas heat with cold-climate heat pumps and replacing gasoline cars with EVs can produce substantial emissions reductions. In fossil-heavy provincial grids, the direction remains useful, but clean generation and transmission expansion become even more important.
Canada’s core challenge is not simply to produce more clean electricity. It is to build transmission, distribution capacity, charging infrastructure, storage, and flexible demand quickly enough to make electrification practical for households, businesses, and industry.
The United States illustrates why electricity demand and electrification are not identical. Its electrification share has remained just above 20%, even though the country has a huge electricity system. Petroleum still dominates much of transport, and fossil fuels remain central to industrial heat and building heating in many regions.
The recent direction is changing. US electricity demand rose by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, with buildings accounting for more than 70% of demand growth in both years. The IEA expects US electricity consumption to rise by more than 420 TWh from 2026 to 2030, with data centres accounting for roughly half of that growth; cooling, heat pumps, new factories, and EVs also contribute. iea
That forecast shows the double-edged nature of electrification. Rising electricity demand can support climate progress, but only if clean electricity and transmission expand rapidly enough to avoid locking in more gas-fired generation.
The United Kingdom has made one of the most visible power-sector transitions among large economies, particularly by reducing coal generation and expanding renewables. But cleaning electricity supply is only half the task. The larger energy system still includes gas boilers in homes, gasoline and diesel vehicles, and fuel use in industry.
The broader European picture is similar. The European Union’s electricity consumption fell during the 2022–23 energy crisis, especially in energy-intensive industry, and has only begun a modest recovery. The IEA estimates EU electricity demand rose 1.6% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025; it forecasts average annual growth of 2.3% to 2030, led by buildings, data centres, cooling, heat pumps, and transport electrification. iea
Europe’s lesson is that an energy crisis can temporarily reduce demand without delivering the kind of structural electrification needed for long-term decarbonization. Lower consumption is helpful when it comes from efficiency and reduced waste; it is less helpful when it comes from curtailed industrial output or households unable to afford adequate heating.
China is the standout case in large-scale electrification. Its electricity demand exceeded 9,500 TWh in 2025, and the IEA expects an average annual growth rate of 4.9% through 2030. China alone is expected to add about 2,600 TWh of electricity demand over those five years—roughly equivalent to the European Union’s current consumption. iea
Much of this growth comes from industry, but buildings and transport are increasingly important. Air conditioning demand rises with hotter summers and higher household incomes. EV adoption is large and growing. Electrified rail, industrial equipment, battery manufacturing, and clean-energy manufacturing all add to electricity demand.
China’s experience demonstrates that electrification can happen quickly when industrial policy, manufacturing scale, infrastructure investment, and consumer technology adoption reinforce one another. The climate outcome, however, depends on how quickly clean generation displaces coal generation. China is installing enormous amounts of wind and solar, but it must also manage grid flexibility, storage, transmission, and coal dependence.
India’s electricity growth is closely tied to development, rising incomes, urbanization, and increased access to energy services. Cooling is especially important: the IEA estimates that space cooling contributed 15% of India’s electricity-demand growth from 2021 to 2025. Industry accounted for 36% of total growth, while buildings as a whole drove about half. iea
India’s peak demand is also becoming more weather-sensitive. National peak load rose cumulatively by 54%, from 162 GW in 2017 to 250 GW in 2024, reflecting heatwaves, air-conditioning use, and agricultural pumping. The priority is therefore not simply to add generation, but to build a flexible and reliable system that can provide affordable electricity while avoiding a long-term dependence on coal. iea
Australia has high electricity use per person and world-class renewable resources, yet its overall electricity share of final energy use has remained just above 20% in the broad IEA comparison. That reflects persistent direct fossil-fuel use in road transport, gas heating, mining, and industry. Australia’s fast uptake of rooftop solar is changing household electricity patterns, while EVs, batteries, electrified heating, and renewable-powered industry could raise its electrification rate further.
The central question is no longer whether electricity demand will grow. It will. Global electricity consumption is projected to rise from 28,200 TWh in 2025 to 33,600 TWh in 2030, an average increase of about 1,100 TWh per year. iea
The climate question is whether this growing electricity system is clean, affordable, reliable, and accessible. That requires four things to advance together:
Electrification is not the entire climate solution. Some activities will remain difficult to electrify directly, including parts of aviation, shipping, high-temperature industry, and long-distance freight. Efficiency, public transit, walking and cycling, demand reduction, and cleaner fuels for the hardest sectors remain indispensable.
But the direction is clear: more of the world’s useful energy services will be delivered by electricity. China has shown how quickly an economy’s electricity share can rise. Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and India each face different starting points, infrastructure constraints, and electricity mixes. Their success will depend not only on adding electric cars or heat pumps, but on building clean power systems capable of supporting an increasingly electrified society. iea
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